South East: Housing market rebounds following post EU referendum dip

Confidence is starting to recover following the immediate reaction to the EU referendum, as the UK residential market experienced a slight upturn in August, according to the latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey.

The August 2016 Survey shows a pick-up in confidence, following the significant drop in activity and price expectations in the wake of the EU vote.  At the national level, both prices and sales are expected to rise over both the three and 12-month horizons as activity in the market stabilises, which will reinforce more stability in the South East.

During August, 12% more respondents nationally reported an increase in prices (up from +5% in July).  Although this reverses a run of five consecutive surveys in which the net balance has decelerated (from a high of 50% in February), it is still the second-weakest reading over the past 18 months.

In the South East, the price net balance showed a positive reading of 7%, a figure in stark contrast to London which remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month, with 30% more respondents noting a fall in prices over the period, as opposed a rise.

Looking ahead, price expectations in the region over the next three months improved, with a net balance of +8% of respondents anticipating prices will rise (up from -17% in July). Nationally price expectations moved into positive territory for the first time since April with 10% more respondents now anticipating an increase over the period.

This slightly stronger picture is also reflected in price expectations for the coming year with modest increases of 1.5% anticipated in the South East.

Following a couple of months in which national sales declined sharply in the aftermath of the referendum, volumes stabilised during August, as the agreed sales indicator improved to zero from -32%. Going forward, sales expectations improved noticeably in the region, posting the strongest reading since April and furthermore, sales projections at 12 months have now climbed out of negative territory in the South East and across all areas of the UK.

New buyer demand decreased slightly across the UK as a whole, although the pace of this decline has eased significantly.  A net balance of -5% more chartered surveyors in the South East have reported a fall in demand in August (up from a net balance of -33% in July).

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, commented: “There are clear signs that the housing market is settling down after the initial surprise of the outcome to the EU referendum. Buyer enquiries did dip again in August but only modestly, and more significantly, sales expectations are beginning to edge upwards once again. It is likely the swift response from the Bank of England, both in terms of the lowering of the capital buffer and the cut in interest rates, has played a role in helping to support confidence.

“The more assured mood is also reflected in some of the longer-term RICS indicators although this in itself could serve to re-ignite ongoing concerns surrounding affordability with five-year projections for both prices and rents in the latest survey back to their highest level since May.”